Rhode Island

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	19.0
Current RPI:	19
Expected SOS:	59
Current SOS:	59
Current Record:	25-7
Expected Record:	25-7
Current Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-0
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	11
Expected OOC SOS:	3

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-7	19.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	84-60	W	100%
11-13	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	88-81	L	0%
11-19	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	88-66	W	100%
11-23	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	N	74-75	W	100%
11-24	Virginia (1.0)	ACC	N	55-70	L	0%
11-28	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	86-62	W	100%
12-2	Providence (32.0)	BE	H	75-68	W	100%
12-6	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	A	68-64	L	0%
12-16	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	68-62	W	100%
12-21	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	80-74	W	100%
12-27	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	80-60	W	100%
12-30	George Mason (201.0)	A10	H	83-64	W	100%
1-3	La Salle (202.0)	A10	H	74-62	W	100%
1-6	George Washington (195.0)	A10	A	60-81	W	100%
1-9	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	A	65-72	W	100%
1-13	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	H	87-73	W	100%
1-17	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	H	73-51	W	100%
1-20	Dayton (146.0)	A10	A	74-88	W	100%
1-24	Fordham (290.0)	A10	A	58-78	W	100%
1-27	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	H	61-58	W	100%
1-30	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	A	83-85	W	100%
2-2	VCU (135.0)	A10	A	68-81	W	100%
2-9	Davidson (47.0)	A10	H	72-59	W	100%
2-13	Richmond (176.0)	A10	H	85-67	W	100%
2-16	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	A	77-74	L	0%
2-20	La Salle (202.0)	A10	A	93-95	W	100%
2-23	Dayton (146.0)	A10	H	81-56	W	100%
2-27	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	H	48-78	L	0%
3-2	Davidson (47.0)	A10	A	63-61	L	0%
3-9	VCU (135.0)	A10	N	76-67	W	100%
3-10	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	N	90-87	W	100%
3-11	Davidson (47.0)	A10	N	57-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Rhode Island	A10	26.22	26.22	78.99	78.99	15.20	15.20
Davidson	A10	5.37	5.37	65.52	65.52	1.67	1.67
Massachusetts	A10	3.88	3.88	41.94	41.94	-0.63	-0.63
St. Bonaventure	A10	3.86	3.86	80.00	80.00	2.31	2.31
VCU	A10	3.83	3.83	58.06	58.06	0.62	0.62
La Salle	A10	3.81	3.81	43.33	43.33	-0.51	-0.51
Saint Joseph's	A10	3.80	3.80	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	3.78	3.78	48.28	48.28	-0.13	-0.13
Saint Louis	A10	2.37	2.37	51.61	51.61	0.08	0.08
George Mason	A10	2.34	2.34	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	2.31	2.31	38.71	38.71	-0.52	-0.52
Fordham	A10	2.31	2.31	30.00	30.00	-0.93	-0.93
George Washington	A10	2.29	2.29	46.88	46.88	-0.14	-0.14
Duquesne	A10	2.25	2.25	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
Providence	BE	1.71	1.71	63.64	63.64	0.47	0.47
Virginia	ACC	1.68	1.68	93.75	93.75	1.47	1.47
Holy Cross	Pat	1.68	1.68	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Seton Hall	BE	1.66	1.66	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Nevada	MWC	1.64	1.64	78.79	78.79	0.94	0.94
Iona	MAAC	1.59	1.59	62.50	62.50	0.40	0.40
Brown	Ivy	1.59	1.59	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Alabama	SEC	1.56	1.56	54.55	54.55	0.14	0.14
College of Charleston	CAA	1.56	1.56	80.00	80.00	0.94	0.94
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.56	1.56	66.67	66.67	0.52	0.52
UNC Asheville	BSth	1.56	1.56	63.33	63.33	0.42	0.42
Harvard	Ivy	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.22	0.22	73.53	73.53	0.10	0.10
Villanova	BE	0.22	0.22	88.24	88.24	0.16	0.16
Penn	Ivy	0.21	0.21	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
Siena	MAAC	0.17	0.17	25.00	25.00	-0.09	-0.09
St. John's	BE	0.17	0.17	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	BE	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Marquette	BE	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Xavier	BE	0.14	0.14	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Maine	AE	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Temple	Amer	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Appalachian St.	SB	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.10	0.10	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Charlotte	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia St.	SB	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.07	0.07	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola MD	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01